It’s a new week of fight picks. After going 3-1-1 last week I have six fights on my radar for Halloween weekend.
A quick note on last weeks miss before we get into this week’s pick. Hindsight is always 20/20 but I really beat myself up over going against Subriel Matias after he stopped Malik Hawkins. Hawkins was fortunate in his previous fight that Darwin Price suffered an injury that paved the way for Hawkins win (Hawkins was down on all three judges cards).
I clearly gave too much weight to the self admitted lack or preparation Matias had before his last fight where he lost a decision but still went toe to toe with his opponent. In the end I still should have put more weight in the heavy hands and high pressure of Matias being too much for the shaky prospect.
Friday, October 30
Fantasy Springs Resort Casino, Indio, California
Jaime Munguia (-400) vs Tureano Johnson (+240) / DAZN 8pm ET
Golden Boy is still molding Munguia, another young, potential Mexican star in the making. After stopping Irish slugger Gary O’Sullivan in January, he takes his biggest step in the ring yet against veteran Tureano Johnson. Johnson should be able to provide some good experience early to mid rounds but I think Munguia wears him down in the latter portion of the fight. Munguia by TKO
Rashidi Ellis (-135) vs Alexis Rocha (+105)/ DAZN
Haven’t been able to find a line for this one but Friday’s co main should be a fun fight between two of Golden Boy’s rising Welterweights in a ten round bout. Ellis, 27, and Rocha, 23, are putting their undefeated records on the line with the goal of positioning himself for a title opportunity. I think we see Ellis’ ring moniker of “Speedy” be the difference as his hand speed and footwork are the difference. Ellis by decision.
Wembley Arena, London, United Kingdom
DAZN, 2pm ET
Oleksandr Usyk (-833) vs Derek Chisora (+500)
Pedigree vs Power. Usyk and his status as WBO mandatory will be up against the battle tested Derek Chisora, who it seems is making his 10th last stand for a title shot. No doubt Chisora Carrie’s nasty game changing power, but I think Usyk will navigate the dangerous waters and pull away late. Usyk by decision
Lee Selby (+120) vs George Kambosos (-140)
Close line, close fight to call. Selby has never reached the heights that his early hype had predicted for him but he has an opportunity to wreck the party for the rising Kambosos. Selby has fought some experienced vets including a close loss to Warrington and scrappy wins over Omar Douglas and Ricky Burns. Kambosos best win came in his last fight, a split decision over Mickey Bey. I wont rack my brain too hard and just go with my first instinct. Selby by decision.
Saturday, October 31
The Bubble, MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
ESPN+, 7:30pm ET
Naoya Inoue (-1000) vs Jason Moloney (+650)
Respect to Moloney for wanting to face the best, and stating that this fight with Inoue is his dream bout. Expect the Aussie to display his grit, but this fight against Inoue “The Monster” on Halloween no less, will (forgive me) turn his dream into a nightmare. Inoue knockout in 6.
The Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Showtime PPV, 9pm ET
Gervonta Davis (-725) vs Leo Santa Cruz (+550)
First of all I’d really like to see Vegas come up with odds on Tank Davis making weight on first try. Secondly, the feeling that Santa Cruz will take this fight the distance and test the conditioning of Davis won’t leave my gut. The odds are heavily against him and I don’t know if he’ll pull of the upset, but I think LSC continues to shows us he is tough as they come and could do enough to split the cards Saturday night. Davis by majority decision.